-23%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment fell 23% at California College of the Arts vs the 2004–2008 baseline (1.0k vs 1.3k).
California · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
California College of the Arts
San Francisco, California. 1,004 undergraduate students. 23 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at California College of the Arts
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+15%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at California College of the Arts rose 15% between 2007 and 2010 ($17.1k → $19.8k).
+15%
In-state tuition
In-state tuition at California College of the Arts rose 15% between 2021 and 2024 ($52.3k → $60.2k).
+15%
Out-of-state tuition
Out-of-state tuition at California College of the Arts rose 15% between 2021 and 2024 ($52.3k → $60.2k).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. California
Each tile compares this institution to the California median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$49,414+29% · 6→10y
California median $42,588$38,308
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry58.7%+56% · '97→'24
California median 61.3%$19,500+21% · '97→'10
At program completion1,004+42% · '96→'10
latest IPEDS57.4%+16% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time73.4%+28% · '01→'24
latest cohort$57,946+209% · '00→'24
out-of-state $57,946SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
5.3%Median federal debt $19,500 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $49,414 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+56%
California College of the Arts · completion · 150% rose
39.4% → 61.2%
+347%
California College of the Arts · completion · 100% rose
10.6% → 47.5%
+16%
California College of the Arts · retention rose
75.0% → 86.7%
+42%
California College of the Arts · undergrad enrollment rose
977 → 1,389
+209%
California College of the Arts · in-state tuition rose
$19,460 → $60,226
+209%
California College of the Arts · out-of-state tuition rose
$19,460 → $60,226
+21%
California College of the Arts · median debt rose
$16,375 → $19,750
-100%
California College of the Arts · cohort default rate fell
4.8% → 0.0%
-23%
California College of the Arts · pell share fell
32.5% → 25.1%
+20%
California College of the Arts · earnings_median_8yr rose
$36,800 → $44,164
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
7 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGIES · CIP 10
VISUAL & PERFORMING ARTS · CIP 50
ARCHITECTURE · CIP 04
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in California
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“California College of the Arts graduates earn $X” — not “California College of the Arts makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending California College of the Arts caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.