-26%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Estes Institute of Cosmetology Arts and Science fell 26% between 2006 and 2009 (73 → 54).
California · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
Estes Institute of Cosmetology Arts and Science
Visalia, California. 41 undergraduate students. 1 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Estes Institute of Cosmetology Arts and Science
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+149%
Earnings trend · post-entry horizons
Earnings 10 years post-entry at Estes Institute of Cosmetology Arts and Science are 149% above 6-year earnings ($10.8k → $27.0k).
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Estes Institute of Cosmetology Arts and Science fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (14.2% → 0.0%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. California
Each tile compares this institution to the California median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$26,965+149% · 6→10y
California median $42,588$10,833
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry80.0%+4% · '97→'09
California median 61.3%$7,000
At program completion41-49% · '96→'09
latest IPEDS91.7%-2% · '04→'09
first-time, full-time—+2% · '02→'09
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
3.5%Median federal debt $7,000 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $26,965 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
-26%
Estes Institute of Cosmetology Arts and Science · undergrad enrollment fell
106 → 54
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in California
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Estes Institute of Cosmetology Arts and Science graduates earn $X” — not “Estes Institute of Cosmetology Arts and Science makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Estes Institute of Cosmetology Arts and Science caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.