-23%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment fell 23% at Adams State University vs the 2018–2022 baseline (1.2k vs 1.6k).
Colorado · Public · Predominantly bachelor's
Adams State University
Alamosa, Colorado. 1,239 undergraduate students. 37 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Adams State University
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+22%
Out-of-state tuition
Out-of-state tuition at Adams State University rose 22% between 2021 and 2024 ($17.9k → $21.9k).
-16%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Adams State University fell 16% between 2021 and 2024 (1.5k → 1.2k).
-14%
First-year retention
First-year retention at Adams State University fell 14% between 2021 and 2024 (59.2% → 50.7%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Colorado
Each tile compares this institution to the Colorado median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$44,372+16% · 6→10y
Colorado median $43,242$38,338
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry31.6%+45% · '97→'24
Colorado median 55.5%$11,750+395% · '97→'20
At program completion1,239-41% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS55.5%-3% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—+40% · '01→'22
latest cohort$9,776+349% · '00→'24
out-of-state $21,848SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
3.5%Median federal debt $11,750 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $44,372 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+45%
Adams State University · completion · 150% rose
27.2% → 39.4%
+65%
Adams State University · completion · 100% rose
11.9% → 19.7%
-41%
Adams State University · undergrad enrollment fell
2,129 → 1,250
+349%
Adams State University · in-state tuition rose
$2,186 → $9,824
+233%
Adams State University · out-of-state tuition rose
$6,582 → $21,944
+395%
Adams State University · median debt rose
$3,938 → $19,500
-100%
Adams State University · cohort default rate fell
19.2% → 0.0%
-25%
Adams State University · pell share fell
50.2% → 37.8%
+29%
Adams State University · earnings_median_8yr rose
$33,300 → $43,072
+33%
Adams State University · earnings_median_6yr rose
$28,800 → $38,338
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$72,966Clinical, Counseling and Applied Psychology.$57,713Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods.$56,444Business/Commerce, General.$53,884Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities.$46,747Health and Physical Education/Fitness.$44,372
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
6 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
EDUCATION · CIP 13
LIBERAL ARTS & GENERAL STUDIES · CIP 24
PARKS, RECREATION & FITNESS · CIP 31
PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Adams State University
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$153,782
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 19
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $13,658
- HS-only baseline · CO
- $40,100
- Years to complete
- 6
- CIP family
- 42
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Colorado
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Adams State University graduates earn $X” — not “Adams State University makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Adams State University caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.