+97%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts rose 97% between 2008 and 2009 ($7.5k → $14.8k).
District of Columbia · Private nonprofit · Predominantly certificates
National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts
Washington, District of Columbia. 25 undergraduate students. 2 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-56%
First-year retention
First-year retention at National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts fell 56% between 2019 and 2022 (75.0% → 33.3%).
-41%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts fell 41% between 2021 and 2024 (27 → 16).
-19pp
150%-time completion
150%-time completion fell 19 pp at National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts vs the 2003–2007 baseline (50.0% vs 68.9%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. District of Columbia
Each tile compares this institution to the District of Columbia median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
—
District of Columbia median $49,020—
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry50.0%
District of Columbia median 55.8%—+97% · '08→'09
At program completion25-67% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS—-63% · '04→'22
first-time, full-time—+47% · '02→'24
latest cohort$11,200+132% · '00→'24
out-of-state $11,200SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+2000%
National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts · completion · 150% rose
0.0% → 100.0%
-63%
National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts · retention fell
91.0% → 33.3%
+132%
National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts · in-state tuition rose
$5,000 → $11,600
+132%
National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts · out-of-state tuition rose
$5,000 → $11,600
+97%
National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts · median debt rose
$7,500 → $14,800
-100%
National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts · cohort default rate fell
20.0% → 0.0%
+230%
National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts · pell share rose
13.3% → 44.0%
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
EARNINGS SUPPRESSED
Federal privacy rules suppressed earnings for Drama/Theatre Arts and Stagecraft · Undergraduate Certificate or Diploma at National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts(cohort below 30 students). The calculator can’t produce a number we’d stand behind, so we don’t.
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in District of Columbia
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts graduates earn $X” — not “National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.