+91%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at Erwin Technical College rose 90% between 2007 and 2010 ($2.6k → $5.0k).
Florida · Public · Predominantly certificates
Erwin Technical College
Tampa, Florida. 556 undergraduate students. 28 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Erwin Technical College
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-25%
150%-time completion
150%-time completion at Erwin Technical College fell 25% between 2006 and 2009 (79.3% → 59.7%).
-24%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment fell 24% at Erwin Technical College vs the 2018–2022 baseline (556 vs 735).
-13%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Erwin Technical College fell 13% between 2021 and 2024 (665 → 581).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Florida
Each tile compares this institution to the Florida median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$37,966+9% · 6→10y
Florida median $36,288$34,887
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry79.4%+78% · '97→'09
Florida median 65.6%—+90% · '97→'10
At program completion556-58% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS40.1%-63% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—+83% · '01→'15
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+78%
Erwin Technical College · completion · 150% rose
33.6% → 59.7%
-63%
Erwin Technical College · retention fell
79.0% → 29.1%
-58%
Erwin Technical College · undergrad enrollment fell
1,396 → 581
+83%
Erwin Technical College · in-state tuition rose
$1,650 → $3,019
+79%
Erwin Technical College · out-of-state tuition rose
$6,600 → $11,829
+90%
Erwin Technical College · median debt rose
$2,625 → $5,000
-100%
Erwin Technical College · cohort default rate fell
25.9% → 0.0%
-84%
Erwin Technical College · pell share fell
97.4% → 15.7%
+21%
Erwin Technical College · earnings_median_10yr rose
$31,500 → $37,966
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Practical Nursing, Vocational Nursing and Nursing Assistants.$54,899Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$45,691Vehicle Maintenance and Repair Technologies.$44,088Heating, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and Refrigeration Maintenance Technology/Technician (HAC, HACR, HVAC, HVACR).$38,975
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
4 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
MECHANIC & REPAIR TECHNOLOGIES · CIP 47
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Erwin Technical College
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$238,456
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 4
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $8,727
- HS-only baseline · FL
- $35,400
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 47
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Florida
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Erwin Technical College graduates earn $X” — not “Erwin Technical College makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Erwin Technical College caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.