-20%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment fell 20% at National Aviation Academy of Tampa Bay vs the 2018–2022 baseline (582 vs 729).
Florida · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
National Aviation Academy of Tampa Bay
Clearwater, Florida. 582 undergraduate students. 2 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at National Aviation Academy of Tampa Bay
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+126%
For-profit certificate-predominant peer
10-year earnings at National Aviation Academy of Tampa Bay are 126% above the for-profit certificate-predominant peer median ($59.0k vs $26.1k).
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at National Aviation Academy of Tampa Bay fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (1.9% → 0.0%).
+16%
First-year retention
First-year retention at National Aviation Academy of Tampa Bay rose 16% between 2021 and 2024 (79.0% → 91.4%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Florida
Each tile compares this institution to the Florida median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$59,029+6% · 6→10y
Florida median $36,288$55,827
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry77.5%-8% · '97→'09
Florida median 65.6%$21,313+117% · '97→'20
At program completion582+360% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS82.5%+11% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
4.8%Median federal debt $21,313 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $59,029 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+11%
National Aviation Academy of Tampa Bay · retention rose
82.0% → 91.4%
+279%
National Aviation Academy of Tampa Bay · undergrad enrollment rose
155 → 713
+117%
National Aviation Academy of Tampa Bay · median debt rose
$10,125 → $22,000
-100%
National Aviation Academy of Tampa Bay · cohort default rate fell
27.3% → 0.0%
+21%
National Aviation Academy of Tampa Bay · earnings_median_8yr rose
$46,700 → $56,372
+29%
National Aviation Academy of Tampa Bay · earnings_median_6yr rose
$43,300 → $55,827
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
1 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
MECHANIC & REPAIR TECHNOLOGIES · CIP 47
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at National Aviation Academy of Tampa Bay
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$683,655
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 2
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $30,681
- HS-only baseline · FL
- $35,400
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 47
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Florida
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“National Aviation Academy of Tampa Bay graduates earn $X” — not “National Aviation Academy of Tampa Bay makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending National Aviation Academy of Tampa Bay caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.