ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS

What the data flags at Northwestern

Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.

LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING WORSE+12%

In-state tuition

In-state tuition at Northwestern University rose 12% between 2021 and 2024 ($60.8k → $68.3k).

LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING BETTER-100%

3-year cohort default rate

3-year cohort default rate at Northwestern University fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (0.1% → 0.0%).

LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING WORSE+12%

Out-of-state tuition

Out-of-state tuition at Northwestern University rose 12% between 2021 and 2024 ($60.8k → $68.3k).

PEER OUTLIER · TRENDING BETTER+52%

Private nonprofit bachelor's-predominant peer

10-year earnings at Northwestern University are 52% above the private nonprofit bachelor's-predominant peer median ($89.4k vs $58.7k).

SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT

The numbers, vs. Illinois

Each tile compares this institution to the Illinois median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.

MEDIAN EARNINGS · 10Y

$89,363+16% · 6→10y

Illinois median $40,810

MEDIAN EARNINGS · 6Y

$76,844

Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry

COMPLETION · 150%

95.9%+5% · '97→'24

Illinois median 53.3%

MEDIAN FEDERAL DEBT

$14,000+37% · '97→'20

At program completion

UNDERGRAD ENROLLMENT

8,960+20% · '96→'24

latest IPEDS

RETENTION

97.4%+0% · '04→'24

first-time, full-time

ADMISSION RATE

7.1%-77% · '01→'24

latest cohort

IN-STATE TUITION

$65,997+177% · '00→'24

out-of-state $65,997

SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS

How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry

Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).

ALL FEDERALLY AIDED STUDENTS · TAX-RECORD EARNINGSVINTAGE 2025-05

Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →

SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS

What loans cost relative to earnings

Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.

Institution-wide

2.1%

0%8% · GE20%+

Median federal debt $14,000 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $89,363 (10y after entry).

SECTION 04 · LONG ARC

Ten-plus year arc

Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.

UNDERGRAD · 1996–20249,201

Undergraduate enrollment.IPEDS EF

COMPLETION 150% · 1997–202495.1%

150%-time completion rate.IPEDS GR

MEDIAN DEBT · 1997–2020$15,000

Median federal student debt at exit.SCORECARD

UNDERGRAD ENROLLMENT · 1996→2024+20%

Northwestern · undergrad enrollment rose

7,645 → 9,201

IN-STATE TUITION · 2000→2024+177%

Northwestern · in-state tuition rose

$24,648 → $68,322

OUT-OF-STATE TUITION · 2000→2024+177%

Northwestern · out-of-state tuition rose

$24,648 → $68,322

MEDIAN DEBT · 1997→2020+37%

Northwestern · median debt rose

$10,925 → $15,000

COHORT DEFAULT RATE · 2011→2024-90%

Northwestern · cohort default rate fell

1.8% → 0.0%

PELL SHARE · 2008→2024+104%

Northwestern · pell share rose

9.1% → 18.6%

EARNINGS_MEDIAN_10YR · 2007→2020+39%

Northwestern · earnings_median_10yr rose

$64,100 → $89,363

EARNINGS_MEDIAN_8YR · 2005→2020+51%

Northwestern · earnings_median_8yr rose

$55,400 → $83,487

EARNINGS_MEDIAN_6YR · 2003→2020+62%

Northwestern · earnings_median_6yr rose

$47,300 → $76,844

SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS

Ranked by 5-year earnings

Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.

Showing top 24 of 58 ranked programs.330 TOTAL PROGRAMS

SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY

58 programs with earnings, grouped

Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.

ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGIES · CIP 15

LEGAL PROFESSIONS · CIP 22

Law.First Professional Degree$256,851296 grads Legal Research and Advanced Professional Studies.First Professional Degree$177,387—

ENGLISH LANGUAGE & LITERATURE · CIP 23

English Language and Literature, General.Bachelor's Degree$61,14253 grads

LIBERAL ARTS & GENERAL STUDIES · CIP 24

Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities.Post-baccalaureate Certificate$93,468—

BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26

Biology, General.Bachelor's Degree$76,013112 grads Cell/Cellular Biology and Anatomical Sciences.Doctoral Degree$107,50923 grads

MATHEMATICS & STATISTICS · CIP 27

Mathematics.Bachelor's Degree$119,51149 grads

PARKS, RECREATION & FITNESS · CIP 31

Health and Physical Education/Fitness.Master's Degree$74,47662 grads

PHYSICAL SCIENCES · CIP 40

Chemistry.Doctoral Degree$161,47343 grads

SCIENCE TECHNOLOGIES · CIP 41

Science Technologies/Technicians, Other.Master's Degree$143,06210 grads

PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42

Clinical, Counseling and Applied Psychology.Master's Degree$56,897267 grads Psychology, General.Bachelor's Degree$71,228124 grads Psychology, Other.Bachelor's Degree$61,17029 grads Research and Experimental Psychology.Bachelor's Degree$84,00722 grads

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & SOCIAL SERVICES · CIP 44

Public Administration.Master's Degree$106,46769 grads Community Organization and Advocacy.Bachelor's Degree$87,76368 grads Public Policy Analysis.Bachelor's Degree$61,96545 grads Community Organization and Advocacy.Master's Degree$158,81431 grads

SOCIAL SCIENCES · CIP 45

Economics.Bachelor's Degree$125,639351 grads Political Science and Government.Bachelor's Degree$76,128117 grads International Relations and National Security Studies.Bachelor's Degree$75,03142 grads Sociology.Bachelor's Degree$57,73633 grads

VISUAL & PERFORMING ARTS · CIP 50

Drama/Theatre Arts and Stagecraft.Bachelor's Degree$47,61998 grads Music.Bachelor's Degree$48,27681 grads Music.Master's Degree$36,98358 grads Music.Doctoral Degree$59,74217 grads

HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51

Medicine.First Professional Degree$132,646158 grads Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions.Master's Degree$84,55148 grads Communication Disorders Sciences and Services.Master's Degree$70,12547 grads Public Health.Master's Degree$183,59246 grads Mental and Social Health Services and Allied Professions.Master's Degree$81,80945 grads Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.Master's Degree$129,74335 grads Medical Clinical Sciences/Graduate Medical Studies.Master's Degree$260,81432 grads Medical Illustration and Informatics.Master's Degree$137,49125 grads Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions.Doctoral Degree$85,259—

BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52

Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods.Master's Degree$162,2471,785 grads Business Administration, Management and Operations.Master's Degree$227,307465 grads Business/Commerce, General.Master's Degree$235,876114 grads Business/Commerce, General.First Professional Degree$318,445—

HISTORY · CIP 54

History.Bachelor's Degree$70,23467 grads

COMMUNICATION & JOURNALISM · CIP 09

Radio, Television, and Digital Communication.Bachelor's Degree$50,861263 grads Communication and Media Studies.Bachelor's Degree$90,012111 grads Communication and Media Studies.Master's Degree$104,69092 grads Public Relations, Advertising, and Applied Communication.Master's Degree$119,17752 grads Journalism.Bachelor's Degree$72,1400 grads Journalism.Master's Degree$70,5810 grads Communication, Journalism, and Related Programs, Other.Master's Degree$120,2920 grads

FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION

Estimate the financial outcome at Northwestern

Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.

Program

Family income

Discount rate · 5.0%

Horizon · 40 years

Apply Dale-Krueger selection shrinkage

Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.

NET PRESENT VALUE

$2,030,423

Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%

BREAKEVEN

Year 6

First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero

Cost per year: $6,485
HS-only baseline · IL: $38,300
Years to complete: 6
CIP family: 52

Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.

SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS

Same sector and degree mix in Illinois

Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.

CHICAGO$91.9k

Northwestern