-21%
100%-time completion
100%-time completion at Union College fell 21% between 2021 and 2024 (28.2% → 22.2%).
Kentucky · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
Union College
Barbourville, Kentucky. 736 undergraduate students. 53 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Union College
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Union College fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (6.6% → 0.0%).
-13%
150%-time completion
150%-time completion at Union College fell 13% between 2021 and 2024 (37.1% → 32.1%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Kentucky
Each tile compares this institution to the Kentucky median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$42,002+15% · 6→10y
Kentucky median $37,114$36,529
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry36.0%-3% · '97→'24
Kentucky median 49.7%$14,250+341% · '97→'20
At program completion736+15% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS57.5%+30% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time55.0%-15% · '01→'24
latest cohort$30,946+178% · '00→'24
out-of-state $30,946SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
4.5%Median federal debt $14,250 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $42,002 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+22%
Union College · completion · 100% rose
18.1% → 22.2%
+30%
Union College · retention rose
49.0% → 63.8%
+178%
Union College · in-state tuition rose
$11,120 → $30,946
+178%
Union College · out-of-state tuition rose
$11,120 → $30,946
+341%
Union College · median debt rose
$5,500 → $24,250
-100%
Union College · cohort default rate fell
10.3% → 0.0%
+21%
Union College · earnings_median_8yr rose
$33,600 → $40,549
+24%
Union College · earnings_median_6yr rose
$29,400 → $36,529
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Union College
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
EARNINGS SUPPRESSED
Federal privacy rules suppressed earnings for Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing · Bachelor's Degree at Union College(cohort below 30 students). The calculator can’t produce a number we’d stand behind, so we don’t.
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Kentucky
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Union College graduates earn $X” — not “Union College makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Union College caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.