-100%
First-year retention
First-year retention at Avalon School of Cosmetology fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (50.0% → 0.0%).
Minnesota · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
Avalon School of Cosmetology
Worthington, Minnesota. 18 undergraduate students. 1 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Avalon School of Cosmetology
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+34%
Earnings trend · post-entry horizons
Earnings 10 years post-entry at Avalon School of Cosmetology are 34% above 6-year earnings ($21.1k → $28.3k).
-17%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Avalon School of Cosmetology fell 17% between 2021 and 2024 (18 → 15).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Minnesota
Each tile compares this institution to the Minnesota median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$28,336+34% · 6→10y
Minnesota median $48,321$21,096
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry70.0%
Minnesota median 54.7%—
At program completion18-58% · '10→'24
latest IPEDS0.0%-100% · '10→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
-100%
Avalon School of Cosmetology · retention fell
94.3% → 0.0%
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
1 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
PERSONAL & CULINARY SERVICES · CIP 12
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Avalon School of Cosmetology
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
-$304,964
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
—
Doesn’t reach breakeven within the horizon
- Cost per year
- $11,019
- HS-only baseline · MN
- $39,400
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 12
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Minnesota
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Avalon School of Cosmetology graduates earn $X” — not “Avalon School of Cosmetology makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Avalon School of Cosmetology caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.