-28%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment fell 28% at Southwest Baptist University vs the 2018–2022 baseline (1.3k vs 1.9k).
Missouri · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
Southwest Baptist University
Bolivar, Missouri. 1,339 undergraduate students. 63 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Southwest Baptist University
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+24%
In-state tuition
In-state tuition at Southwest Baptist University rose 24% between 2006 and 2009 ($13.3k → $16.5k).
-21%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Southwest Baptist University fell 21% between 2021 and 2024 (1.7k → 1.3k).
+17%
Out-of-state tuition
Out-of-state tuition at Southwest Baptist University rose 17% between 2021 and 2024 ($26.1k → $30.6k).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Missouri
Each tile compares this institution to the Missouri median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$43,112+11% · 6→10y
Missouri median $40,979$38,855
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry51.2%-2% · '99→'24
Missouri median 59.3%$14,000+299% · '97→'20
At program completion1,339-46% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS66.4%-11% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time99.7%+43% · '01→'24
latest cohort$28,320+60% · '01→'09
out-of-state $28,320SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
4.3%Median federal debt $14,000 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $43,112 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
-11%
Southwest Baptist University · retention fell
73.0% → 64.8%
-46%
Southwest Baptist University · undergrad enrollment fell
2,463 → 1,341
+60%
Southwest Baptist University · in-state tuition rose
$10,326 → $16,530
+196%
Southwest Baptist University · out-of-state tuition rose
$10,326 → $30,566
+299%
Southwest Baptist University · median debt rose
$5,250 → $20,957
-100%
Southwest Baptist University · cohort default rate fell
10.1% → 0.0%
+27%
Southwest Baptist University · earnings_median_10yr rose
$33,900 → $43,112
+33%
Southwest Baptist University · earnings_median_8yr rose
$31,900 → $42,382
+31%
Southwest Baptist University · earnings_median_6yr rose
$29,700 → $38,855
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Mathematics.$81,975Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions.$77,878Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$72,150Biology, General.$63,069Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$62,412Educational Administration and Supervision.$60,733Health and Physical Education/Fitness.$47,943Education, General.$47,788Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$43,212Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods.$36,857Psychology, General.$36,681
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
11 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
EDUCATION · CIP 13
BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26
MATHEMATICS & STATISTICS · CIP 27
PARKS, RECREATION & FITNESS · CIP 31
PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$62,412Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$72,150Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$43,212Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions.$77,878
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Southwest Baptist University
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$556,249
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 4
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $20,785
- HS-only baseline · MO
- $35,100
- Years to complete
- 2
- CIP family
- 51
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Missouri
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Southwest Baptist University graduates earn $X” — not “Southwest Baptist University makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Southwest Baptist University caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.