-20%
First-year retention
First-year retention at University of the Southwest fell 20% between 2021 and 2024 (69.0% → 55.1%).
New Mexico · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
University of the Southwest
Hobbs, New Mexico. 337 undergraduate students. 56 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at University of the Southwest
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at University of the Southwest fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (4.5% → 0.0%).
-16%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at University of the Southwest fell 16% between 2021 and 2024 (414 → 346).
+94%
100%-time completion
100%-time completion at University of the Southwest rose 94% between 2021 and 2024 (6.8% → 13.2%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. New Mexico
Each tile compares this institution to the New Mexico median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$45,389+24% · 6→10y
New Mexico median $36,869$36,600
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry26.7%+36% · '97→'24
New Mexico median 39.2%$14,000+351% · '97→'20
At program completion337-25% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS53.2%+38% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—-29% · '01→'19
latest cohort$16,670+236% · '01→'24
out-of-state $16,670SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
4.1%Median federal debt $14,000 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $45,389 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+36%
University of the Southwest · completion · 150% rose
12.5% → 17.0%
+111%
University of the Southwest · completion · 100% rose
6.3% → 13.2%
+38%
University of the Southwest · retention rose
40.0% → 55.1%
-25%
University of the Southwest · undergrad enrollment fell
462 → 346
+236%
University of the Southwest · in-state tuition rose
$4,960 → $16,670
+236%
University of the Southwest · out-of-state tuition rose
$4,960 → $16,670
+351%
University of the Southwest · median debt rose
$4,725 → $21,303
-100%
University of the Southwest · cohort default rate fell
17.0% → 0.0%
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
2 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
EDUCATION · CIP 13
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at University of the Southwest
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$213,485
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 17
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $22,163
- HS-only baseline · NM
- $33,800
- Years to complete
- 6
- CIP family
- 13
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in New Mexico
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“University of the Southwest graduates earn $X” — not “University of the Southwest makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending University of the Southwest caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.