-16%
150%-time completion
150%-time completion at Erie Community College fell 15% between 2006 and 2009 (22.3% → 18.9%).
New York · Public · Predominantly associate's
Erie Community College
Buffalo, New York. 5,906 undergraduate students. 77 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Erie Community College
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Erie Community College fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (5.0% → 0.0%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. New York
Each tile compares this institution to the New York median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$41,228+21% · 6→10y
New York median $48,917$34,042
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry27.1%-5% · '01→'09
New York median 64.2%$5,500+252% · '01→'20
At program completion5,906-37% · '01→'24
latest IPEDS54.2%-9% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort$6,100+133% · '02→'24
out-of-state $11,300SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
1.8%Median federal debt $5,500 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $41,228 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
-37%
Erie Community College · undergrad enrollment fell
9,749 → 6,099
+133%
Erie Community College · in-state tuition rose
$2,620 → $6,100
+121%
Erie Community College · out-of-state tuition rose
$5,120 → $11,300
+252%
Erie Community College · median debt rose
$2,625 → $9,250
-100%
Erie Community College · cohort default rate fell
22.0% → 0.0%
+338%
Erie Community College · pell share rose
8.7% → 38.0%
+64%
Erie Community College · earnings_median_10yr rose
$25,100 → $41,228
+71%
Erie Community College · earnings_median_8yr rose
$22,500 → $38,405
+65%
Erie Community College · earnings_median_6yr rose
$20,600 → $34,042
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$82,563Criminal Justice and Corrections.$76,162Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$62,908Heating, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and Refrigeration Maintenance Technology/Technician (HAC, HACR, HVAC, HVACR).$56,738Computer and Information Sciences, General.$56,462Health and Medical Administrative Services.$49,513Building/Construction Finishing, Management, and Inspection.$46,747Criminal Justice and Corrections.$45,590Business Administration, Management and Operations.$44,221Hospitality Administration/Management.$38,458Legal Support Services.$35,637Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities.$35,615Communication and Media Studies.$33,439Human Development, Family Studies, and Related Services.$28,719
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
14 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES · CIP 11
FAMILY & CONSUMER SCIENCES · CIP 19
LEGAL PROFESSIONS · CIP 22
LIBERAL ARTS & GENERAL STUDIES · CIP 24
HOMELAND SECURITY & PROTECTIVE SERVICES · CIP 43
CONSTRUCTION TRADES · CIP 46
MECHANIC & REPAIR TECHNOLOGIES · CIP 47
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
COMMUNICATION & JOURNALISM · CIP 09
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Erie Community College
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
-$66,165
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
—
Doesn’t reach breakeven within the horizon
- Cost per year
- $8,521
- HS-only baseline · NY
- $40,100
- Years to complete
- 2
- CIP family
- 24
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in New York
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Erie Community College graduates earn $X” — not “Erie Community College makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Erie Community College caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.