First-year retention
First-year retention at Mildred Elley School-Albany Campus fell 61% between 2021 and 2024 (68.8% → 26.5%).
Albany, New York. 385 undergraduate students. 18 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
First-year retention at Mildred Elley School-Albany Campus fell 61% between 2021 and 2024 (68.8% → 26.5%).
150%-time completion at Mildred Elley School-Albany Campus fell 38% between 2006 and 2009 (72.0% → 44.4%).
Undergraduate enrollment at Mildred Elley School-Albany Campus fell 22% between 2021 and 2024 (476 → 369).
150%-time completion fell 19 pp at Mildred Elley School-Albany Campus vs the 2003–2007 baseline (26.8% vs 45.6%).
Each tile compares this institution to the New York median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Median federal debt $12,000 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $38,830 (10y after entry).
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
61.4% → 44.4%
55.0% → 26.5%
813 → 369
$11,160 → $15,865
$2,950 → $19,000
9.0% → 0.0%
26.8% → 62.1%
$26,500 → $38,830
$21,500 → $32,300
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Mildred Elley School-Albany Campus caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.