-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Pace University fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (1.9% → 0.0%).
New York · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
Pace University
New York, New York. 7,725 undergraduate students. 148 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Pace University
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. New York
Each tile compares this institution to the New York median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$70,378+33% · 6→10y
New York median $48,917$52,767
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry61.4%+12% · '97→'24
New York median 64.2%$17,750+186% · '97→'20
At program completion7,725+63% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS76.7%-1% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time77.1%+3% · '01→'24
latest cohort$51,424+107% · '00→'09
out-of-state $51,424SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
3.4%Median federal debt $17,750 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $70,378 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+30%
Pace University · completion · 100% rose
35.5% → 46.1%
+63%
Pace University · undergrad enrollment rose
4,700 → 7,665
+107%
Pace University · in-state tuition rose
$15,870 → $32,816
+236%
Pace University · out-of-state tuition rose
$15,870 → $53,290
+186%
Pace University · median debt rose
$8,125 → $23,250
-100%
Pace University · cohort default rate fell
4.8% → 0.0%
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$180,068Business Administration, Management and Operations.$162,466Educational Administration and Supervision.$143,103Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$137,027Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$136,308Human Resources Management and Services.$136,022Computer Science.$116,499Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$113,091Computer Software and Media Applications.$110,053Accounting and Related Services.$109,620Finance and Financial Management Services.$107,462Information Science/Studies.$106,489Information Science/Studies.$105,058Economics.$100,496Business/Commerce, General.$99,308Law.$98,708Finance and Financial Management Services.$98,341Accounting and Related Services.$97,717Computer/Information Technology Administration and Management.$93,861Computer Science.$88,108Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods.$85,341Marketing.$85,031Special Education and Teaching.$83,536Clinical, Counseling and Applied Psychology.$77,659
Showing top 24 of 46 ranked programs.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
46 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES · CIP 11
EDUCATION · CIP 13
LEGAL PROFESSIONS · CIP 22
ENGLISH LANGUAGE & LITERATURE · CIP 23
BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26
PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42
HOMELAND SECURITY & PROTECTIVE SERVICES · CIP 43
SOCIAL SCIENCES · CIP 45
VISUAL & PERFORMING ARTS · CIP 50
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$113,091Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$137,027Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$136,308Mental and Social Health Services and Allied Professions.$66,904Communication Disorders Sciences and Services.$72,239Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$180,068
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
Finance and Financial Management Services.$98,341Accounting and Related Services.$97,717Business Administration, Management and Operations.$70,789Accounting and Related Services.$109,620Finance and Financial Management Services.$107,462Business/Commerce, General.$99,308Marketing.$85,031Human Resources Management and Services.$136,022Business Administration, Management and Operations.$162,466Human Resources Management and Services.$58,611International Business.$60,201Hospitality Administration/Management.$68,939
COMMUNICATION & JOURNALISM · CIP 09
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Pace University
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$1,235,004
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 6
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $29,308
- HS-only baseline · NY
- $40,100
- Years to complete
- 4
- CIP family
- 51
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in New York
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Pace University graduates earn $X” — not “Pace University makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Pace University caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.