-64%
150%-time completion
150%-time completion at The Ailey School fell 64% between 2006 and 2009 (50.0% → 18.2%).
New York · Private nonprofit · Predominantly certificates
The Ailey School
New York, New York. 88 undergraduate students. 1 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at The Ailey School
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+169%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at The Ailey School rose 169% between 2021 and 2024 (35 → 94).
+46%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at The Ailey School rose 46% between 2017 and 2020 ($12.0k → $17.5k).
-4%
Earnings trend · post-entry horizons
Earnings 10 years post-entry at The Ailey School are 4% below 6-year earnings ($23.6k → $22.8k).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. New York
Each tile compares this institution to the New York median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$22,782-4% · 6→10y
New York median $48,917$23,620
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry—-64% · '97→'09
New York median 64.2%$13,399+382% · '97→'20
At program completion88+57% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS85.7%+70% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time49.2%+448% · '01→'24
latest cohort$14,235+121% · '00→'24
out-of-state $14,235SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
7.8%Median federal debt $13,399 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $22,782 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
-64%
The Ailey School · completion · 150% fell
50.0% → 18.2%
+70%
The Ailey School · retention rose
56.0% → 95.2%
+121%
The Ailey School · in-state tuition rose
$6,700 → $14,817
+121%
The Ailey School · out-of-state tuition rose
$6,700 → $14,817
+382%
The Ailey School · median debt rose
$3,632 → $17,500
-100%
The Ailey School · cohort default rate fell
15.3% → 0.0%
+22%
The Ailey School · pell share rose
19.5% → 23.9%
+45%
The Ailey School · earnings_median_8yr rose
$18,100 → $26,321
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at The Ailey School
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
-$472,991
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
—
Doesn’t reach breakeven within the horizon
- Cost per year
- $31,426
- HS-only baseline · NY
- $40,100
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 50
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in New York
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“The Ailey School graduates earn $X” — not “The Ailey School makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending The Ailey School caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.