-7pp
150%-time completion
150%-time completion fell 7 pp at Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles vs the 2003–2007 baseline (50.0% vs 57.3%).
Ohio · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles
Niles, Ohio. 145 undergraduate students. 1 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (3.4% → 0.0%).
+60%
150%-time completion
150%-time completion at Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles rose 60% between 2006 and 2009 (56.7% → 90.7%).
+18%
First-year retention
First-year retention at Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles rose 18% between 2006 and 2009 (72.0% → 84.6%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Ohio
Each tile compares this institution to the Ohio median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$21,307+18% · 6→10y
Ohio median $41,039$17,995
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry50.0%+33% · '97→'09
Ohio median 62.5%$6,251+97% · '04→'20
At program completion145+473% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS94.4%+1% · '04→'09
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
3.9%Median federal debt $6,251 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $21,307 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+33%
Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles · completion · 150% rose
68.4% → 90.7%
+71%
Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles · undergrad enrollment rose
30 → 172
+97%
Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles · median debt rose
$3,819 → $7,538
-100%
Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles · cohort default rate fell
11.4% → 0.0%
+41%
Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles · pell share rose
48.7% → 68.7%
+57%
Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles · earnings_median_10yr rose
$12,800 → $21,307
+41%
Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles · earnings_median_8yr rose
$12,000 → $18,078
+51%
Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles · earnings_median_6yr rose
$10,400 → $17,995
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
EARNINGS SUPPRESSED
Federal privacy rules suppressed earnings for Cosmetology and Related Personal Grooming Services · Undergraduate Certificate or Diploma at Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles(cohort below 30 students). The calculator can’t produce a number we’d stand behind, so we don’t.
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Ohio
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles graduates earn $X” — not “Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Raphael's School of Beauty Culture Inc-Niles caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.