-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at United Theological Seminary fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (0.9% → 0.0%).
Ohio · Private nonprofit · Predominantly graduate
United Theological Seminary
Dayton, Ohio. 5 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at United Theological Seminary
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Ohio
Each tile compares this institution to the Ohio median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
—
Ohio median $41,039—
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry—
Ohio median 62.5%—
At program completion—
latest IPEDS—
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualFINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at United Theological Seminary
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
EARNINGS SUPPRESSED
Federal privacy rules suppressed earnings for Theological and Ministerial Studies · Master's Degree at United Theological Seminary(cohort below 30 students). The calculator can’t produce a number we’d stand behind, so we don’t.
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Ohio
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“United Theological Seminary graduates earn $X” — not “United Theological Seminary makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending United Theological Seminary caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.