-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Warren County Career Center fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (5.9% → 0.0%).
Ohio · Public · Predominantly certificates
Warren County Career Center
Lebanon, Ohio. 206 undergraduate students. 17 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Warren County Career Center
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+60%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Warren County Career Center rose 60% between 2021 and 2024 (164 → 263).
+54%
150%-time completion
150%-time completion at Warren County Career Center rose 54% between 2006 and 2009 (56.0% → 86.2%).
+21%
Public certificate-predominant peer
10-year earnings at Warren County Career Center are 21% above the public certificate-predominant peer median ($49.0k vs $40.5k).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Ohio
Each tile compares this institution to the Ohio median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$49,016+7% · 6→10y
Ohio median $41,039$45,661
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry82.0%-14% · '97→'09
Ohio median 62.5%$5,500-13% · '09→'20
At program completion206-46% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS90.2%+986% · '04→'09
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
1.5%Median federal debt $5,500 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $49,016 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+986%
Warren County Career Center · retention rose
9.0% → 97.7%
-46%
Warren County Career Center · undergrad enrollment fell
483 → 263
-100%
Warren County Career Center · cohort default rate fell
25.0% → 0.0%
+118%
Warren County Career Center · pell share rose
6.8% → 14.9%
+71%
Warren County Career Center · earnings_median_6yr rose
$26,700 → $45,661
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Electrical and Power Transmission Installers.$59,373Heavy/Industrial Equipment Maintenance Technologies.$53,046Precision Metal Working.$46,301Criminal Justice and Corrections.$44,765Heating, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and Refrigeration Maintenance Technology/Technician (HAC, HACR, HVAC, HVACR).$43,407Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications.$42,040
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
6 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES · CIP 11
HOMELAND SECURITY & PROTECTIVE SERVICES · CIP 43
CONSTRUCTION TRADES · CIP 46
MECHANIC & REPAIR TECHNOLOGIES · CIP 47
PRECISION PRODUCTION · CIP 48
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Warren County Career Center
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$545,957
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 2
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $19,930
- HS-only baseline · OH
- $36,400
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 46
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Ohio
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Warren County Career Center graduates earn $X” — not “Warren County Career Center makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Warren County Career Center caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.