-49%
Private nonprofit certificate-predominant peer
10-year earnings at ASPIRA City College are 49% below the private nonprofit certificate-predominant peer median ($34.9k vs $68.6k).
Pennsylvania · Private nonprofit · Predominantly certificates
ASPIRA City College
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. 12 undergraduate students. 4 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at ASPIRA City College
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at ASPIRA City College fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (6.7% → 0.0%).
-47pp
150%-time completion
150%-time completion fell 47 pp at ASPIRA City College vs the 2003–2007 baseline (0.0% vs 47.3%).
+42%
Out-of-state tuition
Out-of-state tuition at ASPIRA City College rose 42% between 2006 and 2009 ($17.0k → $24.1k).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Pennsylvania
Each tile compares this institution to the Pennsylvania median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$34,857+58% · 6→10y
Pennsylvania median $49,859$21,998
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry0.0%-22% · '97→'09
Pennsylvania median 66.1%—+475% · '02→'17
At program completion12+175% · '96→'09
latest IPEDS50.0%+17% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time100.0%-6% · '02→'24
latest cohort$12,147-28% · '03→'24
out-of-state $12,147SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
-22%
ASPIRA City College · completion · 150% fell
92.5% → 71.9%
+17%
ASPIRA City College · retention rose
57.0% → 66.7%
+35%
ASPIRA City College · undergrad enrollment rose
40 → 110
+42%
ASPIRA City College · out-of-state tuition rose
$16,988 → $24,144
+475%
ASPIRA City College · median debt rose
$2,625 → $15,106
-100%
ASPIRA City College · cohort default rate fell
22.5% → 0.0%
+30%
ASPIRA City College · earnings_median_10yr rose
$26,800 → $34,857
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at ASPIRA City College
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
EARNINGS SUPPRESSED
Federal privacy rules suppressed earnings for Health and Medical Administrative Services · Undergraduate Certificate or Diploma at ASPIRA City College(cohort below 30 students). The calculator can’t produce a number we’d stand behind, so we don’t.
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Pennsylvania
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“ASPIRA City College graduates earn $X” — not “ASPIRA City College makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending ASPIRA City College caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.