+15%
Out-of-state tuition
Out-of-state tuition at Messiah University rose 15% between 2006 and 2009 ($23.3k → $26.7k).
Pennsylvania · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
Messiah University
Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania. 2,318 undergraduate students. 94 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Messiah University
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Messiah University fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (0.6% → 0.0%).
+10%
In-state tuition
In-state tuition at Messiah University rose 10% between 2021 and 2024 ($38.4k → $42.2k).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Pennsylvania
Each tile compares this institution to the Pennsylvania median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$54,064+8% · 6→10y
Pennsylvania median $49,859$50,192
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry78.5%+11% · '97→'09
Pennsylvania median 66.1%$21,911+105% · '97→'20
At program completion2,318-9% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS85.4%+1% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time78.5%+1% · '01→'24
latest cohort$40,640+162% · '00→'24
out-of-state $40,640SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
5.4%Median federal debt $21,911 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $54,064 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+162%
Messiah University · in-state tuition rose
$16,130 → $42,240
+66%
Messiah University · out-of-state tuition rose
$16,130 → $26,700
+105%
Messiah University · median debt rose
$12,489 → $25,621
-95%
Messiah University · cohort default rate fell
1.9% → 0.0%
+28%
Messiah University · pell share rose
15.4% → 19.6%
+30%
Messiah University · earnings_median_10yr rose
$41,600 → $54,064
+26%
Messiah University · earnings_median_8yr rose
$40,100 → $50,641
+40%
Messiah University · earnings_median_6yr rose
$35,800 → $50,192
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Accounting and Related Services.$80,555Engineering, General.$74,795Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$72,328Biology, General.$68,760Business Administration, Management and Operations.$65,508Marketing.$65,142Health Professions and Related Clinical Sciences, Other.$57,732Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Subject Areas.$50,981Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods.$49,379Health Services/Allied Health/Health Sciences, General.$49,309Psychology, General.$48,205Education, General.$46,413English Language and Literature, General.$46,412Communication and Media Studies.$44,343Fine and Studio Arts.$42,792Religious Education.$41,655Human Development, Family Studies, and Related Services.$37,003Radio, Television, and Digital Communication.$36,795Health and Physical Education/Fitness.$36,326
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
19 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
EDUCATION · CIP 13
ENGINEERING · CIP 14
FAMILY & CONSUMER SCIENCES · CIP 19
ENGLISH LANGUAGE & LITERATURE · CIP 23
BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26
PARKS, RECREATION & FITNESS · CIP 31
THEOLOGY & RELIGIOUS VOCATIONS · CIP 39
PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42
VISUAL & PERFORMING ARTS · CIP 50
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
COMMUNICATION & JOURNALISM · CIP 09
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Messiah University
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$181,905
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 21
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $22,689
- HS-only baseline · PA
- $38,100
- Years to complete
- 6
- CIP family
- 51
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Pennsylvania
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Messiah University graduates earn $X” — not “Messiah University makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Messiah University caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.