-25%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment fell 25% at Muhlenberg College vs the 2003–2007 baseline (1.8k vs 2.4k).
Pennsylvania · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
Muhlenberg College
Allentown, Pennsylvania. 1,777 undergraduate students. 70 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Muhlenberg College
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+20%
Out-of-state tuition
Out-of-state tuition at Muhlenberg College rose 20% between 2006 and 2009 ($30.7k → $37.0k).
-14%
100%-time completion
100%-time completion at Muhlenberg College fell 14% between 2021 and 2024 (77.5% → 66.7%).
+13%
In-state tuition
In-state tuition at Muhlenberg College rose 12% between 2021 and 2024 ($55.8k → $62.8k).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Pennsylvania
Each tile compares this institution to the Pennsylvania median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$69,107+30% · 6→10y
Pennsylvania median $49,859$53,265
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry80.3%+9% · '97→'09
Pennsylvania median 66.1%$22,000+51% · '97→'20
At program completion1,777+17% · '96→'09
latest IPEDS89.0%-2% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time64.0%+104% · '01→'24
latest cohort$60,240+198% · '00→'24
out-of-state $60,240SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
4.2%Median federal debt $22,000 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $69,107 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+198%
Muhlenberg College · in-state tuition rose
$21,050 → $62,805
+76%
Muhlenberg College · out-of-state tuition rose
$21,050 → $36,990
+51%
Muhlenberg College · median debt rose
$16,821 → $25,455
-55%
Muhlenberg College · cohort default rate fell
1.1% → 0.0%
+199%
Muhlenberg College · pell share rose
7.1% → 21.2%
+24%
Muhlenberg College · earnings_median_10yr rose
$55,700 → $69,107
+30%
Muhlenberg College · earnings_median_8yr rose
$49,900 → $64,633
+24%
Muhlenberg College · earnings_median_6yr rose
$42,900 → $53,265
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Finance and Financial Management Services.$113,440Political Science and Government.$98,108Accounting and Related Services.$92,565Economics.$86,366Biology, General.$84,008Neurobiology and Neurosciences.$82,259Business Administration, Management and Operations.$80,998Mathematics.$74,952Communication and Media Studies.$70,391English Language and Literature, General.$61,699Psychology, General.$60,128Dance.$55,505Drama/Theatre Arts and Stagecraft.$37,505
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
13 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
ENGLISH LANGUAGE & LITERATURE · CIP 23
BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26
MATHEMATICS & STATISTICS · CIP 27
PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42
SOCIAL SCIENCES · CIP 45
VISUAL & PERFORMING ARTS · CIP 50
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
COMMUNICATION & JOURNALISM · CIP 09
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Muhlenberg College
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$765,654
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 7
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $19,712
- HS-only baseline · PA
- $38,100
- Years to complete
- 4
- CIP family
- 52
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Pennsylvania
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Muhlenberg College graduates earn $X” — not “Muhlenberg College makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Muhlenberg College caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.