-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at New Castle School of Trades fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (4.5% → 0.0%).
Pennsylvania · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
New Castle School of Trades
New Castle, Pennsylvania. 623 undergraduate students. 15 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at New Castle School of Trades
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+99%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at New Castle School of Trades rose 99% between 2006 and 2009 (404 → 802).
+25%
150%-time completion
150%-time completion at New Castle School of Trades rose 25% between 2006 and 2009 (58.4% → 73.0%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Pennsylvania
Each tile compares this institution to the Pennsylvania median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$44,814+7% · 6→10y
Pennsylvania median $49,859$41,932
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry74.3%+17% · '97→'09
Pennsylvania median 66.1%$8,315+67% · '97→'20
At program completion623+135% · '96→'09
latest IPEDS79.2%+26% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—+29% · '01→'20
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
2.5%Median federal debt $8,315 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $44,814 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+26%
New Castle School of Trades · retention rose
63.0% → 79.3%
+135%
New Castle School of Trades · undergrad enrollment rose
341 → 802
+67%
New Castle School of Trades · median debt rose
$5,725 → $9,567
-100%
New Castle School of Trades · cohort default rate fell
17.1% → 0.0%
+63%
New Castle School of Trades · earnings_median_10yr rose
$27,500 → $44,814
+79%
New Castle School of Trades · earnings_median_8yr rose
$23,300 → $41,697
+90%
New Castle School of Trades · earnings_median_6yr rose
$22,100 → $41,932
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Electrical and Power Transmission Installers.$51,196Ground Transportation.$51,008Precision Metal Working.$45,354Precision Metal Working.$42,047Vehicle Maintenance and Repair Technologies.$40,278Building/Construction Finishing, Management, and Inspection.$39,646Heating, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and Refrigeration Maintenance Technology/Technician (HAC, HACR, HVAC, HVACR).$39,424Building/Construction Finishing, Management, and Inspection.$29,136
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
8 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
CONSTRUCTION TRADES · CIP 46
MECHANIC & REPAIR TECHNOLOGIES · CIP 47
PRECISION PRODUCTION · CIP 48
TRANSPORTATION & MATERIALS MOVING · CIP 49
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at New Castle School of Trades
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$336,858
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 2
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $8,162
- HS-only baseline · PA
- $38,100
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 49
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Pennsylvania
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“New Castle School of Trades graduates earn $X” — not “New Castle School of Trades makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending New Castle School of Trades caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.