-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Northern State University fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (2.1% → 0.0%).
South Dakota · Public · Predominantly bachelor's
Northern State University
Aberdeen, South Dakota. 1,239 undergraduate students. 60 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Northern State University
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+13%
First-year retention
First-year retention at Northern State University rose 13% between 2021 and 2024 (68.4% → 77.0%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. South Dakota
Each tile compares this institution to the South Dakota median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$47,618+15% · 6→10y
South Dakota median $46,709$41,536
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry52.2%+48% · '97→'24
South Dakota median 59.6%$15,750+278% · '97→'20
At program completion1,239-52% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS75.1%+10% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time92.8%+1% · '02→'24
latest cohort$8,845+167% · '00→'24
out-of-state $11,947SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
4.4%Median federal debt $15,750 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $47,618 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+48%
Northern State University · completion · 150% rose
33.1% → 48.9%
+292%
Northern State University · completion · 100% rose
8.8% → 34.5%
-52%
Northern State University · undergrad enrollment fell
2,676 → 1,273
+167%
Northern State University · in-state tuition rose
$3,312 → $8,845
+64%
Northern State University · out-of-state tuition rose
$7,265 → $11,947
+278%
Northern State University · median debt rose
$5,900 → $22,320
-100%
Northern State University · cohort default rate fell
10.0% → 0.0%
-51%
Northern State University · pell share fell
25.6% → 12.4%
+38%
Northern State University · earnings_median_10yr rose
$34,400 → $47,618
+32%
Northern State University · earnings_median_8yr rose
$32,500 → $42,830
+39%
Northern State University · earnings_median_6yr rose
$29,800 → $41,536
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Finance and Financial Management Services.$70,144Biology, General.$64,107Accounting and Related Services.$56,764Student Counseling and Personnel Services.$54,761Health and Physical Education/Fitness.$53,946Business Administration, Management and Operations.$53,939Psychology, General.$52,374Curriculum and Instruction.$51,852Marketing.$47,201Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods.$44,043
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
10 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
EDUCATION · CIP 13
BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26
PARKS, RECREATION & FITNESS · CIP 31
PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Northern State University
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$34,103
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 28
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $16,444
- HS-only baseline · SD
- $35,900
- Years to complete
- 4
- CIP family
- 13
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in South Dakota
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Northern State University graduates earn $X” — not “Northern State University makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Northern State University caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.