-25%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Paul Mitchell the School-Rapid City fell 25% between 2021 and 2024 (88 → 66).
South Dakota · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
Paul Mitchell the School-Rapid City
Rapid City, South Dakota. 79 undergraduate students. 2 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Paul Mitchell the School-Rapid City
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Paul Mitchell the School-Rapid City fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (1.6% → 0.0%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. South Dakota
Each tile compares this institution to the South Dakota median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$29,547+31% · 6→10y
South Dakota median $46,709$22,585
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry77.8%+22% · '97→'09
South Dakota median 59.6%$7,083+52% · '97→'20
At program completion79+136% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS90.0%+7% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—±0% · '01→'09
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
3.2%Median federal debt $7,083 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $29,547 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+22%
Paul Mitchell the School-Rapid City · completion · 150% rose
66.7% → 81.0%
+52%
Paul Mitchell the School-Rapid City · median debt rose
$5,225 → $7,917
-100%
Paul Mitchell the School-Rapid City · cohort default rate fell
11.9% → 0.0%
+51%
Paul Mitchell the School-Rapid City · pell share rose
37.7% → 56.9%
+41%
Paul Mitchell the School-Rapid City · earnings_median_10yr rose
$20,900 → $29,547
+28%
Paul Mitchell the School-Rapid City · earnings_median_8yr rose
$19,500 → $25,044
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
2 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
PERSONAL & CULINARY SERVICES · CIP 12
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Paul Mitchell the School-Rapid City
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
-$278,850
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
—
Doesn’t reach breakeven within the horizon
- Cost per year
- $19,304
- HS-only baseline · SD
- $35,900
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 12
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in South Dakota
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Paul Mitchell the School-Rapid City graduates earn $X” — not “Paul Mitchell the School-Rapid City makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Paul Mitchell the School-Rapid City caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.