+92%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at UCAS University of Cosmetology Arts & Sciences-McAllen rose 92% between 2006 and 2009 ($2.6k → $4.9k).
Texas · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
UCAS University of Cosmetology Arts & Sciences-McAllen
McAllen, Texas. 92 undergraduate students. 3 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at UCAS University of Cosmetology Arts & Sciences-McAllen
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+11%
First-year retention
First-year retention at UCAS University of Cosmetology Arts & Sciences-McAllen rose 11% between 2021 and 2024 (69.6% → 76.9%).
-66%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at UCAS University of Cosmetology Arts & Sciences-McAllen fell 66% between 2021 and 2024 (155 → 53).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Texas
Each tile compares this institution to the Texas median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$19,880+9% · 6→10y
Texas median $39,639$18,215
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry76.2%+3% · '97→'09
Texas median 51.8%$6,083+190% · '97→'09
At program completion92-75% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS73.3%-14% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—+6% · '02→'03
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
4.1%Median federal debt $6,083 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $19,880 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
-14%
UCAS University of Cosmetology Arts & Sciences-McAllen · retention fell
89.0% → 76.9%
-75%
UCAS University of Cosmetology Arts & Sciences-McAllen · undergrad enrollment fell
216 → 53
+190%
UCAS University of Cosmetology Arts & Sciences-McAllen · median debt rose
$1,700 → $4,936
+144%
UCAS University of Cosmetology Arts & Sciences-McAllen · pell share rose
19.6% → 47.8%
+36%
UCAS University of Cosmetology Arts & Sciences-McAllen · earnings_median_10yr rose
$14,500 → $19,880
+32%
UCAS University of Cosmetology Arts & Sciences-McAllen · earnings_median_8yr rose
$13,900 → $18,717
+32%
UCAS University of Cosmetology Arts & Sciences-McAllen · earnings_median_6yr rose
$13,400 → $18,215
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
2 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
PERSONAL & CULINARY SERVICES · CIP 12
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at UCAS University of Cosmetology Arts & Sciences-McAllen
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
-$404,581
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
—
Doesn’t reach breakeven within the horizon
- Cost per year
- $11,720
- HS-only baseline · TX
- $37,300
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 12
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Texas
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“UCAS University of Cosmetology Arts & Sciences-McAllen graduates earn $X” — not “UCAS University of Cosmetology Arts & Sciences-McAllen makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending UCAS University of Cosmetology Arts & Sciences-McAllen caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.