ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS

What the data flags at Utah

Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.

LONG-ARC SHIFT · TRENDING BETTER-100%

3-year cohort default rate

3-year cohort default rate at University of Utah fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (0.8% → 0.0%).

SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT

The numbers, vs. Utah

Each tile compares this institution to the Utah median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.

MEDIAN EARNINGS · 10Y

$67,170+22% · 6→10y

Utah median $35,805

MEDIAN EARNINGS · 6Y

$55,239

Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry

COMPLETION · 150%

63.9%+73% · '97→'24

Utah median 69.4%

MEDIAN FEDERAL DEBT

$14,000+245% · '97→'20

At program completion

UNDERGRAD ENROLLMENT

26,041+36% · '96→'24

latest IPEDS

RETENTION

85.4%+1% · '04→'24

first-time, full-time

ADMISSION RATE

87.2%-6% · '01→'24

latest cohort

IN-STATE TUITION

$9,315+232% · '00→'24

out-of-state $29,837

SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS

How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry

Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).

ALL FEDERALLY AIDED STUDENTS · TAX-RECORD EARNINGSVINTAGE 2025-05

Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →

SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS

What loans cost relative to earnings

Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.

Institution-wide

2.8%

0%8% · GE20%+

Median federal debt $14,000 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $67,170 (10y after entry).

SECTION 04 · LONG ARC

Ten-plus year arc

Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.

UNDERGRAD · 1996–202427,264

Undergraduate enrollment.IPEDS EF

COMPLETION 150% · 1997–202465.0%

150%-time completion rate.IPEDS GR

MEDIAN DEBT · 1997–2020$19,000

Median federal student debt at exit.SCORECARD

COMPLETION · 150% · 1997→2024+73%

Utah · completion · 150% rose

37.6% → 65.0%

COMPLETION · 100% · 1997→2024+163%

Utah · completion · 100% rose

13.9% → 36.7%

UNDERGRAD ENROLLMENT · 1996→2024+36%

Utah · undergrad enrollment rose

19,979 → 27,264

IN-STATE TUITION · 2000→2024+232%

Utah · in-state tuition rose

$2,897 → $9,620

OUT-OF-STATE TUITION · 2000→2024+250%

Utah · out-of-state tuition rose

$8,828 → $30,860

MEDIAN DEBT · 1997→2020+245%

Utah · median debt rose

$5,500 → $19,000

COHORT DEFAULT RATE · 2011→2024-100%

Utah · cohort default rate fell

2.6% → 0.0%

EARNINGS_MEDIAN_10YR · 2007→2020+34%

Utah · earnings_median_10yr rose

$50,100 → $67,170

EARNINGS_MEDIAN_8YR · 2005→2020+36%

Utah · earnings_median_8yr rose

$44,900 → $61,202

EARNINGS_MEDIAN_6YR · 2003→2020+46%

Utah · earnings_median_6yr rose

$37,800 → $55,239

SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS

Ranked by 5-year earnings

Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.

Showing top 24 of 56 ranked programs.315 TOTAL PROGRAMS

SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY

56 programs with earnings, grouped

Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.

FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION

Estimate the financial outcome at Utah

Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.

Program

Family income

Discount rate · 5.0%

Horizon · 40 years

Apply Dale-Krueger selection shrinkage

Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.

NET PRESENT VALUE

$348,472

Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%

BREAKEVEN

Year 10

First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero

Cost per year: $12,398
HS-only baseline · UT: $38,000
Years to complete: 4
CIP family: 09

Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.

SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS

Same sector and degree mix in Utah

Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.

OREM$55.5k

Utah

3-year cohort default rate

Institution-wide

Utah · completion · 150% rose

Utah · completion · 100% rose

Utah · undergrad enrollment rose

Utah · in-state tuition rose

Utah · out-of-state tuition rose

Utah · median debt rose

Utah · cohort default rate fell

Utah · earnings_median_10yr rose

Utah · earnings_median_8yr rose

Utah · earnings_median_6yr rose

COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES · CIP 11

EDUCATION · CIP 13

ENGINEERING · CIP 14

FOREIGN LANGUAGES · CIP 16

FAMILY & CONSUMER SCIENCES · CIP 19

LEGAL PROFESSIONS · CIP 22

ENGLISH LANGUAGE & LITERATURE · CIP 23

BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26

MULTI/INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES · CIP 30

PARKS, RECREATION & FITNESS · CIP 31

PHYSICAL SCIENCES · CIP 40

PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & SOCIAL SERVICES · CIP 44

SOCIAL SCIENCES · CIP 45

VISUAL & PERFORMING ARTS · CIP 50

HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51

BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52

HISTORY · CIP 54

NATURAL RESOURCES & CONSERVATION · CIP 03

ARCHITECTURE · CIP 04

COMMUNICATION & JOURNALISM · CIP 09

Utah Valley University

Utah State

Salt Lake Community College

Weber State University

Southern Utah University

“Utah graduates earn $X” — not “Utah makes you earn $X”