-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at University of Vermont fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (0.6% → 0.0%).
Vermont · Public · Predominantly bachelor's
UVM
Burlington, Vermont. 11,614 undergraduate students. 171 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at UVM
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Vermont
Each tile compares this institution to the Vermont median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$62,472+30% · 6→10y
Vermont median $50,331$48,164
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry78.6%+15% · '97→'24
Vermont median 66.7%$17,500+100% · '97→'20
At program completion11,614+59% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS88.2%+6% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time60.0%-18% · '01→'24
latest cohort$18,890+130% · '00→'24
out-of-state $43,890SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
3.7%Median federal debt $17,500 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $62,472 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+42%
UVM · completion · 100% rose
49.1% → 69.9%
+59%
UVM · undergrad enrollment rose
7,371 → 11,743
+130%
UVM · in-state tuition rose
$8,288 → $19,058
+129%
UVM · out-of-state tuition rose
$19,832 → $45,502
+100%
UVM · median debt rose
$10,500 → $20,951
-100%
UVM · cohort default rate fell
2.5% → 0.0%
+31%
UVM · earnings_median_10yr rose
$47,800 → $62,472
+34%
UVM · earnings_median_8yr rose
$43,000 → $57,451
+29%
UVM · earnings_median_6yr rose
$37,400 → $48,164
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Medicine.$156,883Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$117,596Accounting and Related Services.$97,620Mechanical Engineering.$87,582Business Administration, Management and Operations.$83,614Computer Science.$81,636Mathematics.$81,078Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions.$80,142Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$78,720Civil Engineering.$78,060Clinical/Medical Laboratory Science/Research and Allied Professions.$74,340Environmental/Environmental Health Engineering.$71,254Biochemistry, Biophysics and Molecular Biology.$69,851Communication Disorders Sciences and Services.$67,340Communication Disorders Sciences and Services.$63,522Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$63,115Mathematics.$62,909Social Work.$62,525Political Science and Government.$61,321Biology, General.$60,654Nutrition Sciences.$60,462Health and Physical Education/Fitness.$60,461Economics.$59,465Public Relations, Advertising, and Applied Communication.$58,211
Showing top 24 of 41 ranked programs.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
41 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES · CIP 11
EDUCATION · CIP 13
ENGINEERING · CIP 14
ENGLISH LANGUAGE & LITERATURE · CIP 23
BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26
MATHEMATICS & STATISTICS · CIP 27
MULTI/INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES · CIP 30
PARKS, RECREATION & FITNESS · CIP 31
PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & SOCIAL SERVICES · CIP 44
SOCIAL SCIENCES · CIP 45
VISUAL & PERFORMING ARTS · CIP 50
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
Medicine.$156,883Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$78,720Dietetics and Clinical Nutrition Services.$55,828Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$63,115Communication Disorders Sciences and Services.$67,340Clinical/Medical Laboratory Science/Research and Allied Professions.$74,340Communication Disorders Sciences and Services.$63,522Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions.$80,142Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$117,596
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
HISTORY · CIP 54
AGRICULTURE · CIP 01
NATURAL RESOURCES & CONSERVATION · CIP 03
COMMUNICATION & JOURNALISM · CIP 09
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at UVM
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$171,227
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 18
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $17,261
- HS-only baseline · VT
- $37,800
- Years to complete
- 4
- CIP family
- 03
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Vermont
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“UVM graduates earn $X” — not “UVM makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending UVM caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.