-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at University of Mary Washington fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (1.4% → 0.0%).
Virginia · Public · Predominantly bachelor's
University of Mary Washington
Fredericksburg, Virginia. 3,504 undergraduate students. 40 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at University of Mary Washington
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Virginia
Each tile compares this institution to the Virginia median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$60,613+23% · 6→10y
Virginia median $44,813$49,411
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry67.4%-10% · '97→'24
Virginia median 50.7%$16,250+106% · '97→'20
At program completion3,504+2% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS82.0%-3% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time86.3%+44% · '01→'24
latest cohort$14,559+351% · '00→'24
out-of-state $31,479SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
3.6%Median federal debt $16,250 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $60,613 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+351%
University of Mary Washington · in-state tuition rose
$3,246 → $14,640
+185%
University of Mary Washington · out-of-state tuition rose
$9,676 → $27,560
+106%
University of Mary Washington · median debt rose
$9,968 → $20,500
-100%
University of Mary Washington · cohort default rate fell
2.1% → 0.0%
+150%
University of Mary Washington · pell share rose
8.4% → 21.1%
+22%
University of Mary Washington · earnings_median_6yr rose
$40,600 → $49,411
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Business Administration, Management and Operations.$114,937Computer and Information Sciences, General.$101,708Business Administration, Management and Operations.$74,031Economics.$68,786Mathematics.$63,457Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities.$63,015Biology, General.$62,967Political Science and Government.$62,017Education, General.$59,799Sociology.$58,027Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods.$57,204International Relations and National Security Studies.$56,845Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities.$56,274Geography and Cartography.$56,193Psychology, General.$56,177English Language and Literature, General.$53,242Linguistic, Comparative, and Related Language Studies and Services.$53,079History.$51,227Philosophy and Religious Studies, Other.$51,174Physical Sciences, Other.$48,166Historic Preservation and Conservation.$44,563Fine and Studio Arts.$42,236Visual and Performing Arts, General.$33,915
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
23 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES · CIP 11
EDUCATION · CIP 13
FOREIGN LANGUAGES · CIP 16
ENGLISH LANGUAGE & LITERATURE · CIP 23
LIBERAL ARTS & GENERAL STUDIES · CIP 24
BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26
MATHEMATICS & STATISTICS · CIP 27
MULTI/INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES · CIP 30
PHILOSOPHY & RELIGIOUS STUDIES · CIP 38
PHYSICAL SCIENCES · CIP 40
PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42
SOCIAL SCIENCES · CIP 45
VISUAL & PERFORMING ARTS · CIP 50
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
HISTORY · CIP 54
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at University of Mary Washington
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$602,612
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 8
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $19,886
- HS-only baseline · VA
- $39,800
- Years to complete
- 4
- CIP family
- 52
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Virginia
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“University of Mary Washington graduates earn $X” — not “University of Mary Washington makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending University of Mary Washington caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.