-15%
First-year retention
First-year retention at Centralia College fell 15% between 2008 and 2011 (62.5% → 53.0%).
Washington · Public · Predominantly associate's
Centralia College
Centralia, Washington. 1,476 undergraduate students. 46 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Centralia College
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+10%
In-state tuition
In-state tuition at Centralia College rose 10% between 2021 and 2024 ($4.8k → $5.3k).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Washington
Each tile compares this institution to the Washington median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$43,140+20% · 6→10y
Washington median $47,350$35,989
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry45.8%+23% · '97→'24
Washington median 46.8%—+10% · '97→'00
At program completion1,476-26% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS—-13% · '04→'11
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort$5,109+197% · '00→'24
out-of-state $5,643SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+23%
Centralia College · completion · 150% rose
34.0% → 41.7%
-13%
Centralia College · retention fell
61.0% → 53.0%
-26%
Centralia College · undergrad enrollment fell
2,096 → 1,552
+197%
Centralia College · in-state tuition rose
$1,776 → $5,266
+163%
Centralia College · out-of-state tuition rose
$2,148 → $5,651
+72%
Centralia College · pell share rose
15.8% → 27.2%
+60%
Centralia College · earnings_median_10yr rose
$26,900 → $43,140
+53%
Centralia College · earnings_median_8yr rose
$24,300 → $37,195
+60%
Centralia College · earnings_median_6yr rose
$22,500 → $35,989
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
2 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Centralia College
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$722,888
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 3
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $10,081
- HS-only baseline · WA
- $41,200
- Years to complete
- 2
- CIP family
- 51
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Washington
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Centralia College graduates earn $X” — not “Centralia College makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Centralia College caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.