-89%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Pacific Lutheran University fell 89% between 2021 and 2024 (0.9% → 0.1%).
Washington · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
Pacific Lutheran University
Tacoma, Washington. 2,350 undergraduate students. 61 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Pacific Lutheran University
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Washington
Each tile compares this institution to the Washington median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$66,990+28% · 6→10y
Washington median $47,350$52,212
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry71.0%+5% · '97→'24
Washington median 46.8%$17,074+88% · '97→'20
At program completion2,350-23% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS79.4%-0% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time80.5%-3% · '01→'24
latest cohort$50,964+211% · '00→'24
out-of-state $50,964SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
3.4%Median federal debt $17,074 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $66,990 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
-23%
Pacific Lutheran University · undergrad enrollment fell
3,123 → 2,401
+211%
Pacific Lutheran University · in-state tuition rose
$16,800 → $52,254
+211%
Pacific Lutheran University · out-of-state tuition rose
$16,800 → $52,254
+88%
Pacific Lutheran University · median debt rose
$12,000 → $22,578
-97%
Pacific Lutheran University · cohort default rate fell
2.9% → 0.1%
+53%
Pacific Lutheran University · pell share rose
23.1% → 35.3%
+34%
Pacific Lutheran University · earnings_median_10yr rose
$49,900 → $66,990
+35%
Pacific Lutheran University · earnings_median_8yr rose
$44,400 → $60,142
+35%
Pacific Lutheran University · earnings_median_6yr rose
$38,600 → $52,212
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$108,525Computer and Information Sciences, General.$105,430Business Administration, Management and Operations.$93,392Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$86,344Mathematics.$79,444Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods.$74,553Business Administration, Management and Operations.$70,355Geological and Earth Sciences/Geosciences.$63,740Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods.$62,293History.$61,451Health and Physical Education/Fitness.$61,136Mental and Social Health Services and Allied Professions.$59,999Communication and Media Studies.$59,869Social Work.$58,933Sociology.$58,698Psychology, General.$52,603Biology, General.$49,616Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other.$45,541Rhetoric and Composition/Writing Studies.$45,374Anthropology.$43,199Music.$39,968Fine and Studio Arts.$27,811
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
22 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES · CIP 11
EDUCATION · CIP 13
ENGLISH LANGUAGE & LITERATURE · CIP 23
BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26
MATHEMATICS & STATISTICS · CIP 27
MULTI/INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES · CIP 30
PARKS, RECREATION & FITNESS · CIP 31
PHYSICAL SCIENCES · CIP 40
PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & SOCIAL SERVICES · CIP 44
SOCIAL SCIENCES · CIP 45
VISUAL & PERFORMING ARTS · CIP 50
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
HISTORY · CIP 54
COMMUNICATION & JOURNALISM · CIP 09
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Pacific Lutheran University
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$764,917
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 7
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $18,653
- HS-only baseline · WA
- $41,200
- Years to complete
- 4
- CIP family
- 51
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Washington
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Pacific Lutheran University graduates earn $X” — not “Pacific Lutheran University makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Pacific Lutheran University caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.