-21%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Avalon Institute-Mesa fell 21% between 2021 and 2024 (377 → 298).
Arizona · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
Avalon Institute-Mesa
Mesa, Arizona. 388 undergraduate students. 1 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Avalon Institute-Mesa
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+375%
150%-time completion
150%-time completion at Avalon Institute-Mesa rose 375% between 2007 and 2010 (14.2% → 67.5%).
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Avalon Institute-Mesa fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (3.5% → 0.0%).
+40%
100%-time completion
100%-time completion at Avalon Institute-Mesa rose 39% between 2009 and 2010 (19.7% → 27.5%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Arizona
Each tile compares this institution to the Arizona median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$30,803+4% · 6→10y
Arizona median $39,817$29,562
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry80.4%+27% · '97→'10
Arizona median 43.0%$6,312+167% · '97→'20
At program completion388+37% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS89.5%+6% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
2.7%Median federal debt $6,312 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $30,803 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+27%
Avalon Institute-Mesa · completion · 150% rose
53.1% → 67.5%
+39%
Avalon Institute-Mesa · completion · 100% rose
19.7% → 27.5%
+37%
Avalon Institute-Mesa · undergrad enrollment rose
218 → 298
+167%
Avalon Institute-Mesa · median debt rose
$2,375 → $6,332
-100%
Avalon Institute-Mesa · cohort default rate fell
22.0% → 0.0%
+92%
Avalon Institute-Mesa · pell share rose
23.4% → 45.0%
+58%
Avalon Institute-Mesa · earnings_median_10yr rose
$19,500 → $30,803
+46%
Avalon Institute-Mesa · earnings_median_8yr rose
$18,900 → $27,582
+46%
Avalon Institute-Mesa · earnings_median_6yr rose
$20,200 → $29,562
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
1 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
PERSONAL & CULINARY SERVICES · CIP 12
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Arizona
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Avalon Institute-Mesa graduates earn $X” — not “Avalon Institute-Mesa makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Avalon Institute-Mesa caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.