-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at University of South Florida fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (1.2% → 0.0%).
Florida · Public · Predominantly bachelor's
USF
Tampa, Florida. 36,299 undergraduate students. 215 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at USF
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Florida
Each tile compares this institution to the Florida median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$57,743+19% · 6→10y
Florida median $36,288$48,328
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry74.6%+62% · '97→'24
Florida median 65.6%$14,976+149% · '97→'20
At program completion36,299+53% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS91.4%+13% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time41.0%-35% · '01→'24
latest cohort$6,410+184% · '00→'24
out-of-state $17,324SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
3.5%Median federal debt $14,976 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $57,743 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+62%
USF · completion · 150% rose
47.4% → 76.8%
+204%
USF · completion · 100% rose
21.5% → 65.4%
+13%
USF · retention rose
81.0% → 91.3%
+53%
USF · undergrad enrollment rose
24,313 → 37,207
+184%
USF · in-state tuition rose
$2,260 → $6,410
+87%
USF · out-of-state tuition rose
$9,240 → $17,324
+149%
USF · median debt rose
$7,231 → $17,988
-100%
USF · cohort default rate fell
9.8% → 0.0%
+28%
USF · earnings_median_10yr rose
$45,000 → $57,743
+30%
USF · earnings_median_8yr rose
$41,800 → $54,167
+27%
USF · earnings_median_6yr rose
$38,100 → $48,328
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
Medicine.$161,763Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$133,440Pharmacy, Pharmaceutical Sciences, and Administration.$132,476Computer Systems Analysis.$127,236Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$119,872Electrical, Electronics and Communications Engineering.$118,661Engineering-Related Fields.$116,007Computer Engineering.$99,737Accounting and Related Services.$98,458Electrical, Electronics and Communications Engineering.$98,101Business Administration, Management and Operations.$97,700Medical Illustration and Informatics.$93,300Civil Engineering.$93,227Computer and Information Sciences, General.$91,728Mechanical Engineering.$91,161Communication Disorders Sciences and Services.$90,543Entrepreneurial and Small Business Operations.$90,312Industrial Engineering.$89,514Health and Physical Education/Fitness.$86,804Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$85,063Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions.$84,913Chemical Engineering.$84,431Management Information Systems and Services.$82,726Public Health.$80,866
Showing top 24 of 97 ranked programs.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
97 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES · CIP 11
EDUCATION · CIP 13
Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods.$49,950Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Subject Areas.$51,927Educational Administration and Supervision.$70,322Curriculum and Instruction.$78,638Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Subject Areas.$57,026Curriculum and Instruction.$55,694Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods.$54,544Special Education and Teaching.$57,114Special Education and Teaching.$52,875Student Counseling and Personnel Services.$55,805
ENGINEERING · CIP 14
ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGIES · CIP 15
FOREIGN LANGUAGES · CIP 16
ENGLISH LANGUAGE & LITERATURE · CIP 23
LIBERAL ARTS & GENERAL STUDIES · CIP 24
LIBRARY SCIENCE · CIP 25
BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES · CIP 26
MATHEMATICS & STATISTICS · CIP 27
MULTI/INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES · CIP 30
PARKS, RECREATION & FITNESS · CIP 31
PHILOSOPHY & RELIGIOUS STUDIES · CIP 38
PHYSICAL SCIENCES · CIP 40
PSYCHOLOGY · CIP 42
HOMELAND SECURITY & PROTECTIVE SERVICES · CIP 43
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & SOCIAL SERVICES · CIP 44
SOCIAL SCIENCES · CIP 45
VISUAL & PERFORMING ARTS · CIP 50
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
Health Services/Allied Health/Health Sciences, General.$56,599Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$85,063Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$119,872Public Health.$76,407Public Health.$53,182Medicine.$161,763Communication Disorders Sciences and Services.$49,517Pharmacy, Pharmaceutical Sciences, and Administration.$132,476Medical Illustration and Informatics.$93,300Communication Disorders Sciences and Services.$58,705Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions.$84,913Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions.$51,894Public Health.$80,866Communication Disorders Sciences and Services.$90,543Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration, Nursing Research and Clinical Nursing.$133,440Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, and Treatment Professions.$52,365
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & MARKETING · CIP 52
Finance and Financial Management Services.$72,549Marketing.$63,056Business Administration, Management and Operations.$97,700Accounting and Related Services.$69,308Business/Commerce, General.$59,627Management Information Systems and Services.$82,726Business Administration, Management and Operations.$55,006Accounting and Related Services.$98,458International Business.$55,651Entrepreneurial and Small Business Operations.$90,312Hospitality Administration/Management.$51,031Entrepreneurial and Small Business Operations.$46,737Business/Managerial Economics.$73,009
HISTORY · CIP 54
NATURAL RESOURCES & CONSERVATION · CIP 03
ARCHITECTURE · CIP 04
AREA, ETHNIC & CULTURAL STUDIES · CIP 05
COMMUNICATION & JOURNALISM · CIP 09
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at USF
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$416,485
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 8
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $10,649
- HS-only baseline · FL
- $35,400
- Years to complete
- 4
- CIP family
- 26
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“USF graduates earn $X” — not “USF makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending USF caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.