-17%
First-year retention
First-year retention at Paul Mitchell the School-Lexington fell 17% between 2021 and 2024 (78.6% → 65.4%).
Kentucky · Private for-profit · Predominantly certificates
Paul Mitchell the School-Lexington
Lexington, Kentucky. 204 undergraduate students. 1 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Paul Mitchell the School-Lexington
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Paul Mitchell the School-Lexington fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (3.9% → 0.0%).
-18%
Median federal debt at exit
Median federal debt at exit at Paul Mitchell the School-Lexington fell 18% between 2017 and 2020 ($12.0k → $9.8k).
+15%
150%-time completion
150%-time completion at Paul Mitchell the School-Lexington rose 15% between 2006 and 2009 (65.2% → 75.0%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Kentucky
Each tile compares this institution to the Kentucky median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$23,207+9% · 6→10y
Kentucky median $37,114$21,361
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry74.4%+43% · '97→'09
Kentucky median 49.7%$9,833+23% · '09→'20
At program completion204+800% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS89.5%-29% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
5.6%Median federal debt $9,833 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $23,207 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+43%
Paul Mitchell the School-Lexington · completion · 150% rose
52.6% → 75.0%
-29%
Paul Mitchell the School-Lexington · retention fell
92.0% → 65.4%
+84%
Paul Mitchell the School-Lexington · undergrad enrollment rose
21 → 189
+23%
Paul Mitchell the School-Lexington · median debt rose
$8,000 → $9,833
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
1 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
PERSONAL & CULINARY SERVICES · CIP 12
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Paul Mitchell the School-Lexington
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
-$243,358
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
—
Doesn’t reach breakeven within the horizon
- Cost per year
- $22,553
- HS-only baseline · KY
- $33,900
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 12
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Kentucky
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Paul Mitchell the School-Lexington graduates earn $X” — not “Paul Mitchell the School-Lexington makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Paul Mitchell the School-Lexington caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.