-100%
3-year cohort default rate
3-year cohort default rate at Erie 1 BOCES fell 100% between 2021 and 2024 (4.2% → 0.0%).
New York · Public · Predominantly certificates
Erie 1 BOCES
West Seneca, New York. 312 undergraduate students. 11 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Erie 1 BOCES
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+23%
Undergraduate enrollment
Undergraduate enrollment at Erie 1 BOCES rose 23% between 2021 and 2024 (312 → 383).
+16%
150%-time completion
150%-time completion at Erie 1 BOCES rose 16% between 2006 and 2009 (71.8% → 83.1%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. New York
Each tile compares this institution to the New York median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$47,114+8% · 6→10y
New York median $48,917$43,451
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry83.3%-17% · '02→'09
New York median 64.2%$7,781+43% · '02→'20
At program completion312+733% · '02→'24
latest IPEDS70.1%-27% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—+437% · '02→'09
latest cohort—
annualSECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
2.2%Median federal debt $7,781 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $47,114 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
-27%
Erie 1 BOCES · retention fell
100.0% → 72.7%
+169%
Erie 1 BOCES · undergrad enrollment rose
46 → 383
+43%
Erie 1 BOCES · median debt rose
$6,625 → $9,500
-100%
Erie 1 BOCES · cohort default rate fell
17.8% → 0.0%
-22%
Erie 1 BOCES · pell share fell
68.9% → 53.8%
+34%
Erie 1 BOCES · earnings_median_6yr rose
$32,400 → $43,451
SECTION 05 · PROGRAMS
Ranked by 5-year earnings
Each row is one (CIP × credential) program reported by the institution in College Scorecard's Field-of-Study data. Cohort floor is 30 students; below this, federal data is suppressed.
SECTION 06 · BY CIP FAMILY
2 programs with earnings, grouped
Programs are grouped by 2-digit CIP family. Programs without reported earnings are hidden to keep the list focused.
PERSONAL & CULINARY SERVICES · CIP 12
HEALTH PROFESSIONS · CIP 51
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Erie 1 BOCES
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
NET PRESENT VALUE
$167,123
Over 40 years, discounted 5.0%
BREAKEVEN
Year 9
First year cumulative discounted earnings cross zero
- Cost per year
- $11,423
- HS-only baseline · NY
- $40,100
- Years to complete
- 1
- CIP family
- 51
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in New York
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Erie 1 BOCES graduates earn $X” — not “Erie 1 BOCES makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Erie 1 BOCES caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.