+37%
In-state tuition
In-state tuition at Arlington Baptist University rose 37% between 2021 and 2024 ($15.2k → $20.8k).
Texas · Private nonprofit · Predominantly bachelor's
Arlington Baptist University
Arlington, Texas. 268 undergraduate students. 33 programs in the federal Field-of-Study dataset.
ANOMALY ENGINE · NOTABLE SIGNALS
What the data flags at Arlington Baptist University
Short-arc shifts (recent 3-year window), peer outliers, earnings trend breaks, completion drops, enrollment cliffs, and debt-to-earnings warnings — surfaced deterministically from the federal record. Multi-decade shifts are reported separately in the Long Arc section, since 25-year tuition drift isn't really an anomaly.
+37%
Out-of-state tuition
Out-of-state tuition at Arlington Baptist University rose 37% between 2021 and 2024 ($15.2k → $20.8k).
-16pp
150%-time completion
150%-time completion fell 16 pp at Arlington Baptist University vs the 2018–2022 baseline (4.5% vs 20.5%).
-15%
150%-time completion
150%-time completion at Arlington Baptist University fell 15% between 2021 and 2024 (22.9% → 19.4%).
SECTION 01 · OUTCOMES SNAPSHOT
The numbers, vs. Texas
Each tile compares this institution to the Texas median for the same metric. Sub-line shows the comparison value, not an interpretation. Sparklines trace the federally available history.
$44,644+39% · 6→10y
Texas median $39,639$32,206
Treasury earnings · 6y post-entry4.5%+36% · '97→'24
Texas median 51.8%$9,500+345% · '97→'20
At program completion268+42% · '96→'24
latest IPEDS43.6%-16% · '04→'24
first-time, full-time—
latest cohort$19,290+407% · '00→'24
out-of-state $19,290SECTION 02 · EARNINGS HORIZONS
How earnings spread, 4 to 10 years after entry
Treasury tax-record earnings for federally aided students who first enrolled at this institution. Each point is a horizon from the most-recent vintage. Single median per horizon (no p25/p75 publishing).
Earnings widen with time post-entry. Selection: federal-aid recipients only — not all graduates.Methodology →
SECTION 03 · DEBT-TO-EARNINGS
What loans cost relative to earnings
Annual debt service as a share of median earnings 10 years after entry, computed under federal Direct loan terms (10-year fixed at 6%). The 8% line is the gainful-employment threshold from federal regulation; above 12% has historically been considered “failing” under prior rule cycles.
Institution-wide
2.8%Median federal debt $9,500 amortized over 10 years vs. median earnings $44,644 (10y after entry).
SECTION 04 · LONG ARC
Ten-plus year arc
Federally available history. Coverage varies by metric — IPEDS publishes some series only after 2009 and others only before.
Undergraduate enrollment.
150%-time completion rate.
Median federal student debt at exit.
+36%
Arlington Baptist University · completion · 150% rose
14.3% → 19.4%
-16%
Arlington Baptist University · retention fell
49.0% → 41.2%
+42%
Arlington Baptist University · undergrad enrollment rose
200 → 284
+407%
Arlington Baptist University · in-state tuition rose
$4,110 → $20,830
+407%
Arlington Baptist University · out-of-state tuition rose
$4,110 → $20,830
+345%
Arlington Baptist University · median debt rose
$6,062 → $27,000
+41%
Arlington Baptist University · pell share rose
37.7% → 53.1%
+24%
Arlington Baptist University · earnings_median_10yr rose
$35,900 → $44,644
+27%
Arlington Baptist University · earnings_median_8yr rose
$31,100 → $39,650
FINANCIAL OUTCOME · ILLUSTRATION
Estimate the financial outcome at Arlington Baptist University
Pick a program. Cost from Scorecard net price by family income; earnings from Treasury 5-year-post-completion median, projected forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve. The selection-bias toggle applies the Dale-Krueger shrinkage. Outcomes illustration, not a forecast — see methodology.
Shrinks the earnings premium toward the matched-applicant mean. STEM <15%, business ~40%, arts & education ~60%.
EARNINGS SUPPRESSED
Federal privacy rules suppressed earnings for Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities · Bachelor's Degree at Arlington Baptist University(cohort below 30 students). The calculator can’t produce a number we’d stand behind, so we don’t.
Outcomes illustration · not a forecast. Projects observed Scorecard earnings forward with a Mincer age-earnings curve under your assumptions. See methodology for the math.
SECTION 07 · SIMILAR INSTITUTIONS
Same sector and degree mix in Texas
Picked by Carnegie sector × predominant credential level. These are not rankings — just nearest-neighbour surfaces for comparison.
CAUSAL DISCIPLINE
“Arlington Baptist University graduates earn $X” — not “Arlington Baptist University makes you earn $X”
Median earnings describe what cohorts earned. They do not describe what attending Arlington Baptist University caused. Selection effects (who admits, who enrolls, who completes) are real. We publish federal data with strict descriptive phrasing — and link the methodology where you can read about the limitations directly.